Finland faces power deficit in 2030 – Wind and solar alone are not enough
​22.10.2025
Researchers from the University of Oulu have examined how Finland’s electricity system will evolve by 2030 and how the growth of renewable energy will affect the balance between production and consumption. The study, published in AIMS energy, is based on open hourly data and future capacity projections by Fingrid.
The researchers utilized hourly production and consumption data from 2023 to create an hour-by-hour estimate for 2030. The method applied the realized 2023 capacity factors to Fingrid’s projected installed capacities for 2030. This approach provided a detailed picture of when and how often electricity production will be sufficient to meet demand during different seasons.
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Key Findings:
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Wind and solar power are expected to grow rapidly, with their combined share of electricity production rising from 19% (2023) to over 50% by 2030
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The power deficit will persist: according to the model, Finland will remain electricity-negative for 61% of the hours in 2030, with an annual shortfall of about 10 TWh
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On windy days, the market price of electricity was on average slightly lower than on calm days.
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Seasonal variation is significant: large deficits occur in winter and surpluses in summer, emphasizing the need for energy storage and flexible demand
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The study concludes that, despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, Finland will not achieve full electricity self-sufficiency by 2030 under current development trajectories. To close the gap, extensive investments are needed in energy storage, demand flexibility, and emerging technologies such as the hydrogen economy and smart grid management.
The research provides policymakers and energy sector stakeholders with detailed hourly-level insights into where and when electricity deficits are likely to occur, and how they could be mitigated in the future.
Read the full open-access article:
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